Are you a believer or non-believer of Peak Oil?

I've gone again for over a month without posting or writing anything on the subject. Rest assured it's not because of lack of content or ideas. Actually, it's the large amount of ideas that have been going through my mind that have made me more hesitant to write. I don't want to write down every thought I have, which would probably be not only boring for the reader but unproductive. So I have spent the last month or so wondering what to write, while trying to stay up-to-date on the discussions that relates to Peak Oil and Energy. I finally was able to settle my mind on a few key points that I am now writing about.

Some [Peak Oil] people I talked to in the beginning of this year predicted that 2008 would be the year when Peak Oil becomes a mainstream topic. I believe this is happening. Peak Oil is now a much more familiar term and I have seen it mentioned on many articles in mainstream media. Just a year ago or so almost no one you asked around knew what Peak Oil was. I am confident that by the end of the year most people can mention the term Peak Oil to a co-worker and not get a weird look from the person.

That Peak Oil is becoming a mainstream topic is great news. Hopefully people familiar with Peak Oil will know that it doesn't mean the world is running out of oil as in "tomorrow we will not have oil". Peak Oil basically means that demand for oil oustrips supply. It's a pretty simple thing and yet the economic consequences can be dire.

Let it be known that Peak Oil is a theory and not a fact. Because of that, Peak Oil can easily be seen as another religion. That is because a theory, any theory, requires faith since it's not the truth. In the case of Peak Oil the believers and non-believers can be divided within a spectrum that on one end has the people who believe oil is a finite resource and on the other end has the people who believe there's plenty of oil reserves to be discovered and perhaps oil is quickly being formed right now underground in areas that just yesterday had no oil. People can fall anywhere within this spectrum, yet it's easy to see a line that divides it in half, thus making it easier to separate the believers from the non-believers.

Now, as a believer or non-believer of Peak Oil you may have arguments that "human ingenuity" inevitably will find a replacement for oil. This argument makes for a very good discussion, but let's save it for another time. For now, let's focus on the question "are you a believer or non-believer of Peak Oil?". This is a question I am genuinely interested in, so feel free to express your opinion in the comments section. As for me, I'd like to explain why I believe that the theory of Peak Oil is correct.

There are two distinct philosophies present in the world right now that can be integrated with the Peak Oil theory.
One philosophy is that we live in a physical universe, in which there are planets, including one with ideal conditions for life where we find outselves today. Planet Earth has resources that make life for humans and other species possible, resources such as oxygen, water, and everything else you can think of that is essential for sustaining life. Let's call this the "world of finite resources" that because they are finite there are limitations.
The other philosophy is that we do not live in a physical world; that matter is just an illusion and everything we perceive as real exists only in our mind. In this case, mind over matter makes anything possible. Obviously for someone who embraces this philosophy, Peak Oil should be of no concern; after all, oil itself is an illusion. Let's call this the "world where matter is an illusion" and because everything exists in the mind there are no limitations.

I like to think of myself as open-minded so I'm not discarding either philosophy described above. Actually, I find myself quite fortunate to have been exposed to both: the first one I experienced while living my first 19 years in Brazil while the second one I experienced while living for 13 years in the United States.

Well, based on these two very different life experiences I must say that the finite world is much more real for me. The scarcity I experienced in Brazil (and did not find pleasant) made a mark on me and therefore makes it easy for me to be a Peak Oil believer. The abundance of resources and opportunities that have seemed infinite in the United States for many years is something I attribute to the abundance of oil that we have in this country (with two-thirds of it being imported now). While I believe in the power of the mind, I also strongly believe that oil is a finite resource and thus it will end some day, just as when you drink a glass of beer it gets empty. In the case of beer you can go make some more, assuming you have the right ingredients. In the case of oil we do not have the capacity to create more oil.

So to summarize, the thinking that causes me to believe in Peak Oil is pretty simple: we live in a physical world where oil is a finite resource that we have been using up and some day won't have any left. You don't need to agree with this line of thinking. But suppose it is correct, then one question that naturally arises is "what will life be like when we have no more oil?".

Well, that is very hard to imagine. But we should try, and so here's an attempt: try very quickly to think of ten products that do not come from oil.

It's very hard isn't it because oil is one of the most pervasive element in modern life. Now, assuming you came up with a few products that do not come from oil, such as a wooden chair. Let's take a closer look at this wooden chair. It probably has nails in it. The wood was probably cut with a saw that used electricity that might have been generated in part by burning oil. And the chair was likely delivered to the store by a truck that ran on fuel that came from oil, and if the chair was produced in another country across the ocean then it probably came to this country by a ship that used diesel for fueling it. The conclusion is this: that chair, as imagined by you, would probably not be possible without the use of oil.

Now, I realize that Peak Oil has a negative connotation, especially in our society. An idea of dwindling and scarce resources cannot be well accepted in a culture that wants to believe in no limits. However, Peak Oil does not need to be seen as a negative thing. Remember, there was life before oil was discovered, and there was life before humans started using fossil fuels and our so called "industrial age". And life was just as enjoyable if not more enjoyable. Personally, I have learned that materialism does not make anyone fulfilled. Peak Oil just may be what brings some balance into our world, what brings people closer together, and causes everyone to work for the survival of humankind, with no one having even the desire for a "free ride".

The United States was the pioneer in oil production, and it was only because Americans quickly figure out applications for oil, which made oil extraction a very profitable business. As a result, the United States has often been called "the most prosperous country in human history". I believe Americans have enjoyed so much wealth and abundance because of oil and not because "the physical world is an illusion and there are no limitations". The US is still by far the largest consumer of oil, which puts this country in a very vulnerable position when oil production is in irreversible decline, which is the core of the Peak Oil theory. The quality of life that we have now, materialistically speaking, is probably as good as it gets. If we want to maintain a decent standard of living, the wise thing to do is to use the remaining oil to build alternative energy solutions that can keep us going when our civilization has no more oil. However, if our goal is only to prolong an unsustainable way of life for as long as possible, then we will have to grab resources from other countries so that we can use them. This is just logic in a world of finite resources.

I would like to finish this post with one more thought: there are many people who speak of "free energy", as referring to different alternatives that will replace oil (that we have yet to discover). I have found thought about free energy for a long time and my conclusion is this: we have already found free energy. It exists in the form of oil. It sits underground with the possibility of being extracted. Most of it has already been extracted. It's likely that over half the reserves of oil have already been burned.

Thank you for reading and engaging yourself in this important discussion.

- Ricardo Parker

Are you a believer or non-believer of Peak Oil?

I've gone again for over a month without posting or writing anything on the subject. Rest assured it's not because of lack of content or ideas. Actually, it's the large amount of ideas that have been going through my mind that have made me more hesitant to write. I don't want to write down every thought I have, which would probably be not only boring for the reader but unproductive. So I have spent the last month or so wondering what to write, while trying to stay up-to-date on the discussions that relates to Peak Oil and Energy. I finally was able to settle my mind on a few key points that I am now writing about.

Some [Peak Oil] people I talked to in the beginning of this year predicted that 2008 would be the year when Peak Oil becomes a mainstream topic. I believe this is happening. Peak Oil is now a much more familiar term and I have seen it mentioned on many articles in mainstream media. Just a year ago or so almost no one you asked around knew what Peak Oil was. I am confident that by the end of the year most people can mention the term Peak Oil to a co-worker and not get a weird look from the person.

That Peak Oil is becoming a mainstream topic is great news. Hopefully people familiar with Peak Oil will know that it doesn't mean the world is running out of oil as in "tomorrow we will not have oil". Peak Oil basically means that demand for oil oustrips supply. It's a pretty simple thing and yet the economic consequences can be dire.

Let it be known that Peak Oil is a theory and not a fact. Because of that, Peak Oil can easily be seen as another religion. That is because a theory, any theory, requires faith since it's not the truth. In the case of Peak Oil the believers and non-believers can be divided within a spectrum that on one end has the people who believe oil is a finite resource and on the other end has the people who believe there's plenty of oil reserves to be discovered and perhaps oil is quickly being formed right now underground in areas that just yesterday had no oil. People can fall anywhere within this spectrum, yet it's easy to see a line that divides it in half, thus making it easier to separate the believers from the non-believers.

Now, as a believer or non-believer of Peak Oil you may have arguments that "human ingenuity" inevitably will find a replacement for oil. This argument makes for a very good discussion, but let's save it for another time. For now, let's focus on the question "are you a believer or non-believer of Peak Oil?". This is a question I am genuinely interested in, so feel free to express your opinion in the comments section. As for me, I'd like to explain why I believe that the theory of Peak Oil is correct.

There are two distinct philosophies present in the world right now that can be integrated with the Peak Oil theory.
One philosophy is that we live in a physical universe, in which there are planets, including one with ideal conditions for life where we find outselves today. Planet Earth has resources that make life for humans and other species possible, resources such as oxygen, water, and everything else you can think of that is essential for sustaining life. Let's call this the "world of finite resources" that because they are finite there are limitations.
The other philosophy is that we do not live in a physical world; that matter is just an illusion and everything we perceive as real exists only in our mind. In this case, mind over matter makes anything possible. Obviously for someone who embraces this philosophy, Peak Oil should be of no concern; after all, oil itself is an illusion. Let's call this the "world where matter is an illusion" and because everything exists in the mind there are no limitations.

I like to think of myself as open-minded so I'm not discarding either philosophy described above. Actually, I find myself quite fortunate to have been exposed to both: the first one I experienced while living my first 19 years in Brazil while the second one I experienced while living for 13 years in the United States.

Well, based on these two very different life experiences I must say that the finite world is much more real for me. The scarcity I experienced in Brazil (and did not find pleasant) made a mark on me and therefore makes it easy for me to be a Peak Oil believer. The abundance of resources and opportunities that have seemed infinite in the United States for many years is something I attribute to the abundance of oil that we have in this country (with two-thirds of it being imported now). While I believe in the power of the mind, I also strongly believe that oil is a finite resource and thus it will end some day, just as when you drink a glass of beer it gets empty. In the case of beer you can go make some more, assuming you have the right ingredients. In the case of oil we do not have the capacity to create more oil.

So to summarize, the thinking that causes me to believe in Peak Oil is pretty simple: we live in a physical world where oil is a finite resource that we have been using up and some day won't have any left. You don't need to agree with this line of thinking. But suppose it is correct, then one question that naturally arises is "what will life be like when we have no more oil?".

Well, that is very hard to imagine. But we should try, and so here's an attempt: try very quickly to think of ten products that do not come from oil.

It's very hard isn't it because oil is one of the most pervasive element in modern life. Now, assuming you came up with a few products that do not come from oil, such as a wooden chair. Let's take a closer look at this wooden chair. It probably has nails in it. The wood was probably cut with a saw that used electricity that might have been generated in part by burning oil. And the chair was likely delivered to the store by a truck that ran on fuel that came from oil, and if the chair was produced in another country across the ocean then it probably came to this country by a ship that used diesel for fueling it. The conclusion is this: that chair, as imagined by you, would probably not be possible without the use of oil.

Now, I realize that Peak Oil has a negative connotation, especially in our society. An idea of dwindling and scarce resources cannot be well accepted in a culture that wants to believe in no limits. However, Peak Oil does not need to be seen as a negative thing. Remember, there was life before oil was discovered, and there was life before humans started using fossil fuels and our so called "industrial age". And life was just as enjoyable if not more enjoyable. Personally, I have learned that materialism does not make anyone fulfilled. Peak Oil just may be what brings some balance into our world, what brings people closer together, and causes everyone to work for the survival of humankind, with no one having even the desire for a "free ride".

The United States was the pioneer in oil production, and it was only because Americans quickly figure out applications for oil, which made oil extraction a very profitable business. As a result, the United States has often been called "the most prosperous country in human history". I believe Americans have enjoyed so much wealth and abundance because of oil and not because "the physical world is an illusion and there are no limitations". The US is still by far the largest consumer of oil, which puts this country in a very vulnerable position when oil production is in irreversible decline, which is the core of the Peak Oil theory. The quality of life that we have now, materialistically speaking, is probably as good as it gets. If we want to maintain a decent standard of living, the wise thing to do is to use the remaining oil to build alternative energy solutions that can keep us going when our civilization has no more oil. However, if our goal is only to prolong an unsustainable way of life for as long as possible, then we will have to grab resources from other countries so that we can use them. This is just logic in a world of finite resources.

I would like to finish this post with one more thought: there are many people who speak of "free energy", as referring to different alternatives that will replace oil (that we have yet to discover). I have found thought about free energy for a long time and my conclusion is this: we have already found free energy. It exists in the form of oil. It sits underground with the possibility of being extracted. Most of it has already been extracted. It's likely that over half the reserves of oil have already been burned.

Thank you for reading and engaging yourself in this important discussion.

- Ricardo Parker