Seattle Peak Oil Task Force - Question and Answer

Last week we had a meeting in Seattle for Peak Oilers - we are attempting to create some Peak Oil Task Force group or something similar. We were recently asked a question by a gentleman who emailed us, and below is a response by Greg Rock.

Question:
It is not clear to me if "peak oil" refers only to conventionally
drilled oil or to fossil fuel substitutes such as coal-to-oil/gas. My
main fear is not that we will run out of oil but that we WON'T run
into peak oil for a very long time, and will use hugely
environmentally destructive means to get oil at any cost, and then
externalize those costs and provide cheap gasoline which is, in fact,
heavily subsidized.

Answer:
Larry you have correctly assessed what I believe the big challenge is. It is not actually running out of energy that is potentially so bad, but turning to an "energy no matter what the cost" scenario that could be disastrous. This would lead us down a road of unconventional liquid fuel production of tar sands and coal to liquid technology + nuclear. Due to the layered energy required for production (Creates a Lower Energy Return over Energy Investment) and the higher carbon content of the dirtier source fuels the impact on global warming would be significant.

I model data using Argonne National Labs GREET data. Based on their numbers per gallon of gasoline burned, if the gallon of gasoline was made from tar sands it produces 17% more GHG emissions than conventional petroleum. 17% increase in our GHG emissions just if we burn the same quantity of fuel represents a challenge if we are trying to reduce our GHG emission 20% in the next 50 years. But it gets worse with coal to liquid technology which represents a whopping 131% increase in GHG emission per gallon of gasoline burned. Biodiesel from soy on the other hand creates a 53% reduction in GHG emissions. With peaking conventional oil there will be high social and economic demand for all alternative liquid fuels to be developed. Getting the economy to choose the source of its life-blood with a conscious is the real challenge.

So we really face two challenges. Peak oil has really already occurred for conventional oil supplies. Our first challenge is to produce enough alternative liquid fuel supply with a simultaneous demand reduction to keep prices from spiraling out of control destroying our economy. Our 2nd challenge is to not turn to probably the cheaper and easiest alternative fuel choices like Coal to liquid because the use of them would be catastrophic for climate change.

The real challenge is that Joe Schmo American is just going to want cheap gasoline for their car and they won't care where it comes from. Generally the cheapest will be the dirtiest unless we internalize the negative cost of burning finite resources and releasing stored carbon into the atmosphere into the cost of fuels. Without a proper price structure I suspect we are doomed to run full speed into a climate disaster while attempting to avoid and energy crisis.

Greg Rock